Proliferation Press

A webpage devoted to tracking and analyzing current events related to the proliferation of WMD/CBRN.

Archive for September, 2008

Russia Update: Ailing Economy; Successful Missile Test & Delayed Nuclear Deal with Australia

Posted by proliferationpresswm on September 20, 2008

 

AFP reports that Australia may drag its feet on a nuclear fuel deal with Russia. Meanwhile, Russia keeps up its aggressive posturing: Deutsche Welle reports on Russia’s successful testing of a new ballistic missile.

By the way, the missile can hold up to ten nuclear warheads.

But how does the recent finance-melt and US-led bailout alter Russia’s geo-political outlook. With Asian, European and Russian markets benefiting from the record $700 US tax payer-backed bailout coupled with falling oil-prices, how much saber-rattling can Russia afford?

Here’s a WSJ article examining Russia’s economic troubles. From the article:

 

The market’s collapse, down 57% since May, is linked to the dysfunctional nature of the Russian state and economy. Nearly every aspect of commerce in Russia is deeply entangled with state power, if not with Mr. Putin personally. This, for obvious reasons, does not comfort most investors.

One famous investor in particular was worried about the security of doing business in Mr. Putin’s Russia. Rupert Murdoch, speaking on News Corp.’s earnings call on Aug. 5, had this to say: “The more I read about investments in Russia, the less I like the feel of it. The more successful we’d be, the more vulnerable we’d be to have it stolen from us, so there we sell now.”

The hoped-for liberalization under new Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has turned out to be another case of wishful thinking both in Russia and the West. There’s no doubt in the business community about who’s really in charge. After his cronies’ takeover attempt of steel and coal giant Mechel was rebuffed, Mr. Putin’s public outburst of criticism in late July was enough to destroy the company’s market value.

From AFP:

The west’s relations with Russia are at a turning point after its intervention in Georgia and a pact to sell Australian uranium to Moscow is in the balance, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said Thursday. 

Parliament’s treaties committee earlier recommended that the deal signed with former president Vladimir Putin last year be put on hold because of concerns about Russia’s nuclear weapons programme. 

The committee said the government should first satisfy itself that the billion-dollars-a-year (800,000 US dollars) worth of the nuclear fuel would be used solely for civilian nuclear power. 

And it should give more consideration to recent events such as the conflict in Georgia, the committee’s report said.

… 

Australia, which has the world’s largest known reserves of uranium, stipulated in its pact to sell the nuclear material to Russia that it not be used to make nuclear weapons or be sold on to any other country.

And from Deutsche Welle: 

With a range of 8,000 kilometers (5,000 miles), the Bulava can be equipped with up to 10 individually targeted nuclear warheads.

The missile test-fire comes during a time when US-Russia relations have hit a post Cold War low after Moscow’s recent military intervention in Georgia. Washington harshly criticized the military move.

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Islamabad Bombing: At Least 40 Dead in Marriott Bombing After President Zardari’s First Paraliament Address

Posted by proliferationpresswm on September 20, 2008

At least forty are dead after a suicide bombing at the Islamabad Marriott Hotel in Pakistan.

From AljazeeraEnglish:

From UK’s Telegraph:

The blast is one of Pakistan’s biggest terrorist attacks in recent history. Windows in buildings hundreds of meters away were shattered. There was no immediate claim of responsibility.

Pakistan, a US ally in the war on terror, has faced a wave of militant violence in recent weeks following army-led offensives against insurgents in its border regions, though the capital has avoided most of the bloodshed. 

The blast comes right on the heels of President Zardari’s first address to Pakistan’s Paraliament.  Zardari spoke of the terrorist threaet his country faces, but focused more on negoitation than extermination–and delcared “the greatest challenge this government faces is an economic one.”

From Zardari’s speech:

We must root out terrorism and extremism where and whenever they may rear their ugly heads…

Madam Speaker, Pakistan is at a critical security juncture today. In order to meet the challenges posed to (by) the extremist and terrorist elements in the tribal areas and adjoining regions, the government has devised a comprehensive three pronged strategy. First to make peace with those who are willing to keep the peace and renounce violence, second, to invest in development and social uplift of the local people and third to use force only as the last resort against those who refuse to surrender their arms, take the law into their hands, challenge the writ of government and attack the security forces. For all the stake holder to have ownership of this policy, I will request the government to hold a national security briefing for an in camera joint session of Parliament. Let every [clapping] have an opportunity to make an independent informed judgment about the risks to our beloved country and about how we should move forward with responsibility, clarity of vision. I ask of the government that it should be firm in its resolve to not allow the use of its soil carrying out terrorist activities against any foreign country. We will not tolerate the violation of our sovereignty and territorial integrity by any power in the name of combating terrorism (clapping).

Such acts of terrorism show the hard road ahead for Zardari. He faces a troubled economy, deadly terrorist attacks and political opposition that derailed Pakistan’s previous paraliamentary regime. 

An interesting note: Zardari addressed the Paraliament in English–not Urdu–and wearing a Western suit. This is a precedent-breaking move, according to the The Economic Times. 

Posted in Pakistan | Tagged: , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Brown and Zardari Talk Terrorism

Posted by proliferationpresswm on September 19, 2008

An interesting (if two-day old) Guardian report on anti-terrorism talks between President Zardari and Prime Minister Brown:

It is thought that Zardari outlined to Brown Pakistan’s plan to combat terrorism, which included a proposal to set up a dedicated cell inside the Pakistani high commission in London to help track British Pakistanis suspected of extremism. Most of the known terror plots in the UK have had some connection to Pakistan and often involved a visit there for training.

Zardari sought Brown’s help in promoting the idea of an anti-terror conference of Pakistan, Afghanistan and its neighbours Iran, China, Russia and India, along with Britain and the US as observers.

The idea is to reach a consensus among the countries most directly affected by the extremists based in Pakistan and Afghanistan, in an attempt to claim the ownership of the anti-terror fight as an indigenous struggle. A Zardari aide said: “We want to broaden the base for this war, to stop it being seen as … George Bush’s crusade. Otherwise, it just won’t wash at home.”

Posted in Britain, Diplomacy, Pakistan | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Pakistan Makes Its Own Nuclear Move

Posted by K.E. White on September 19, 2008

Business Standard reports on the liklihood of Pakistan–in clear reaction to the US-India nuclear deal–pushing for a nuclear deal with China. 

In its bid to offset the impact of Indo-US nuclear deal, Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari will take up the acquisition of nuclear fuel technology from China during his forthcoming visit.

The Pakistan government has decided to set up two nuclear power plants worth Rs 139 billion to overcome the country’s energy crisis, official sources were quoted as saying by the Aaj Kal Urdu daily.

Zardari, who is expected to visit China in the near future, will discuss the acquisition of fuel technology for the two new plants with the Chinese leadership, the sources said.

While one may consider India a prime candidate for nuclear commerce, many of its attributes–steady regime, peaceful political turnovers, even accepting terrorism probelms–Pakistan’s regimes have not shown themselves durable. While jockeying between weak deomcratic regimes and strong-man dictatorships, expanding Pakistan’s nuclear arsneal and power facilities comes with additional headaches: abrupt regime change and the real and potent presence of radical Islamic terror-groups.

Time will shown if Pakistan’s newly elected President and re-charged (if unity-less) Paraliament can foster the stability, liberalism and security so lacking in Pakistan’s recent past. And–addressing worse-case scenarios–the Pakastani military has shown strong and responsible control over Pakistan’s nuclear hardware. But Pakistan’s four-pronged pressures–economic woes, Kashmir, periodic political upheaval and the worrisome presence & support of Islamic terrorism–keep international concern over this country at a high level.

Posted in China, Diplomacy, India, Nuclear, Pakistan, U.S. India Nuclear Deal, WMD | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Michael Krepon On US-India Nuclear Deal: The “clear legislative intent of the Congress has been subverted”

Posted by proliferationpresswm on September 18, 2008

A solid interview with Michael Krepon, Co-founder, The Henry L. Stimson Center for the Council on Foreign Relations.

Two sections to highlight:

  • The government of India has been very clear in saying that the suspension of fuel supplies at its power plants would be grounds for removing Indian facilities from the IAEA safeguards agreement. What this means is, quite simply, that in the event of a resumption of Indian testing, French and Russian suppliers of fuel will argue very strenuously that fuel supplies should continue because otherwise safeguards will be removed—and there will be no consensus in the NSG. So the clear legislative intent of the Congress has been subverted by the Bush administration’s dealings with both the IAEA and the NSG.
  • Another interesting question is whether or not the government of Israel will seek exemptions from the typical rules of nuclear commerce, not necessarily for power plants, but perhaps for desalinization plants, that’s another possibility. I think the ramifications of an Israeli attempt to get exemptions from nuclear controls are worth considering. 

The interview succinctly shows the flaws with the nuclear pact, while fleshing out its the political and commercial consequences.

Posted in Diplomacy, Michael Krepon, Nuclear, U.S. India Nuclear Deal, WMD | Tagged: , , , | Leave a Comment »

US Treasury Department Designates Iran’s National Shipping Line ‘Proliferator’

Posted by proliferationpresswm on September 16, 2008

The Wall Street Journal reports on the recent US Treasury decision to label Iran’s national shipping industry a ‘proliferator’. The move further tightens the screws on Iran, which while a large supplier of crude oil is dependent on other nation’s refiners to turn that oil into usable products—like gasoline. 

It’s an interesting episode of how international trading laws governing maritime commerce intersect with nuclear proliferation and raw realpolitik. 

The move isn’t all that unprecedented for the Bush administration: in 2005, several firms from China, India and Austria faced US Treasury sanctions for providing Iran with missile and chemical-arms related products. But this is the first time a nation’s shipping industry has faced such action: illustrating the Treasury Department’s evolving role in non-proliferation issues.

Read Iran’s response to the news here.

From WSJ

The U.S. Treasury Department accused Iran’s national maritime carrier of helping the country’s nuclear and missile programs, a formal move designed to pressure Iran amid stalled talks over its nuclear work.

The Treasury, in designating the carrier as a “proliferator,” said the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines and 18 of its affiliated entities were secretly “providing logistical services” to Iran’s military, falsifying shipping documents and using deceptive terms to describe shipments in order to hide their activities from foreign maritime officials.

The designation, which typically is designed to stop companies on the list from doing business in the U.S., further blocks the carrier’s ability to move money through U.S. banks as well as blocking it from carrying food and medical supplies not included in Washington’s longstanding trade sanctions against Iran.

… 

This is the first time Treasury has designated a shipping company as a proliferator, the department said.

The company says it has a fleet of 91 ships, most of them bulk carriers designed to transport dry cargo such as grain, coal and iron ore. Oil shipments from Iran, one of the world’s biggest exporters, aren’t likely to be affected. The company says it has just two tankers, and they are used to transport vegetable oil and similar products.

The move could complicate Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines’s dealings with other countries. Its ships call frequently at nearby Dubai, part of the United Arab Emirates, according to the Iranian carrier’s Web site. The company also says it makes regular trips to big ports in Hong Kong, Singapore, the U.K., Germany and France.

Posted in Bush administration, Iran, Nuclear, WMD | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

An Interesting–if Slanted–Look at the NSG Deliberations over the US-India Nuclear Deal

Posted by proliferationpresswm on September 16, 2008

An interesting—if bombastic—pro-Indian article into the deliberations of the Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG) the US-India nuclear deal. 

Chief points: China mucked up passage by insisting Pakistan also receive a nuclear waiver. Also, the article highlights an interesting wrinkle of the US-India nuclear deal: Indian energy independence from Iran. 

The article also expresses the visceral Indian support for the nuclear deal; a sharp constrast from the American public’s ignorance and indifference towards the soon-to-be approved agreement. 

From Hari Sud’s article in the UPI Asia Online:

NSG works by consensus, which agrees to opinions reached by the group as a whole. Even one holdout with idealism in mind can put a spanner in the works. This is what a group lead by Austria, including New Zealand, Ireland, Netherlands and Norway did to India’s recent application for waiver. They held out for two consecutive NSG meetings and five rounds of negotiations. Idealism was the motive behind their moves. Under pressure from India and the U.S., they finally withdrew all objections and consented to the waiver of the U.S. prepared revised draft.

China played a negative role. They unenthusiastically supported the waiver, knowing fully well that the U.S. was hundred percent behind the move. They walked out of the meeting once in support of Austria, Ireland and New Zealand. In a bid to scuttle the deal, they demanded an airtight commitment from India to ban testing of any nuclear bombs, although they would not give any such commitment from their side. In addition they made a fresh case for Pakistan to be awarded the same special waiver, given to India. They knew that Pakistan is a nuclear proliferator, yet pleaded their case to endorse the Pakistani government’s support of their strategic plans in Asia. This last minute treachery from China, who earlier supported India, will never be forgotten.

If the NSG had not given the waiver, India still has adequate resources to power its growing economy with local coal and natural gas from Iran. However, this would have quadrupled India’s greenhouse gases emission from the current 1.1 billion tons a year to about 4 billion tons in 20 years and its impact on earth’s fragile environment would have been catastrophic. Nuclear energy will, however, cut India’s emissions by half.

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The US-India Nuclear Deal: What Is Gained

Posted by proliferationpresswm on September 16, 2008

Two articles detail the financial gains resulting from the soon-to-be approved nuclear deal between the United States and India. The precedent-breaking agreement makes India the first and only non-member of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) to legally engage in nuclear commerce.

The NPT, crafted in 1968, sought to limit nuclear proliferation and foster eventual nuclear disarmament by recognizing only five nuclear powers—United States, Russia, Britain, France and China. In return, other members were promised the technology-sharing and a commitment to nuclear disarmament. India considered the agreement discriminatory, and eventually detonated nuclear weapons in 1998 in response to Pakistan’s displayed its own nuclear-weapons capability.

The nuclear deal allows the US to provide fuel to India. But lifting the former nuclear moratorium on India also allows other nations—such as France, Russia and China to soon follow America’s lead.

The Irish Times brings focus to the rewards awaiting American weapons producers:

“Other than obvious commercial interests, which are important, the US is keen to invest militarily in India which it believes with Washington’s help and hardware can emerge as a counterweight to China’s growing might,” said retired Indian army lieutenant general VK Kapoor.

Washington is seeking a credible ally in a region where its hold is becoming tenuous. It is anxious for closer ties with India and equipment sales is a vital link in that chain, he added.

Over the next few months India is expected to acquire eight maritime reconnaissance aircraft from Boeing for more than $2 billion (€1.4 billion), varied equipment for its special forces and is considering the purchase of six additional Lockheed-Martin-built C 130J Hercules transport aircraft expected to cost about $1 billion.

Washington is also backing the $10 billion contract for 126 multi-role combat fighters for which Boeing and Lockheed Martin are competing alongside Russian and European manufacturers.

US companies are also bidding to supply India with more than 220 military helicopters to replace ageing platforms in contracts estimated at about $2 billion.

And the prospect of Delhi acquiring Patriot and Harpoon missiles was discussed during Indian defence minister AK Antony’s visit to Washington that ended at the weekend.

India is also expected to finalise negotiations with the US on the long-pending logistics support agreement that permits the two militaries reciprocal use of facilities for maintenance, servicing, communications, refuelling and medical care, bringing the two defence establishments closer.

Asia Times Online sheds light on the commercial impact of the deal:

Two years of heated, divisive debate on the nuclear deal also gave way to a buzz across the country on how much India stands to gain. The stock markets gained 3% as plans by India’s largest engineering firms such as Larsen & Toubro took a huge jump towards becoming reality. 

Over 400 Indian and foreign firms are expected to gain from the NSG waiver, according to leading industry bodies such as the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry. The 2020 goal for the country’s nuclear power generation industry requires a minimum investment of $45 billion, estimates the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India. 

While most of the new nuclear power plant deals are in the near future category, Larsen & Toubro has already struck a $750 million joint-venture deal this past July with the government-owned Nuclear Power Corporation of India Ltd (NPCIL) to manufacture forgings for nuclear power plants. 

Another engineering major, government-owned Bharat Heavy Electronics Ltd, and L&T are together expected to garner contracts worth $10 billion of the estimated $100 billion worth of deals over the next two decades. 

Mumbai-based NPCIL, which spearheads India’s nuclear power program, says it has 17 nuclear reactors in operation and five reactors under construction. 

The $1.2 billion GVK group, another leading infrastructure-developing Indian company, has plans to buy reactors and equipment from American companies such as General Electric and Westinghouse Electric. 

Such benifits may bring about tight and reinforcing bounds between the world’s largest democractic nations. But such gains will be weighed against future trends in nuclear weapon and energy proliferation. not to mention the response from Pakistan’s newly minted regime.

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The US-India Nuclear Deal: Believable or Not, On Track For September Passage

Posted by proliferationpresswm on September 13, 2008

A deal some pronounced dead months ago is predicted to become law this month. The landmark nuclear cooperation deal allows India—a non-recognized nuclear-weapons country—to engage in nuclear commerce with other nuclear powers. While proliferation concerns have nagged the precedent-shattering for years, another concern now faces Washington: will the deal actually bring India closer to China and Russia. 

The last obstacle for the deal resides in the United States, will the US Congress is expected to take up and pass the bill. 

President George Bush’s landmark foreign policy achievement may not only cripple non-proliferation efforts, but tilt global influence away from America. 

The Bush administration’s aggressive push for a US-Indian nuclear partnership was premised on two large assumptions: 1) international inertia on recognizing India’s nuclear status was hampering non-proliferation efforts, and 2) if America led the nuclear effort, it would be the foundation of a strategic partnership with India. While only time will tell on the deal’s impact of nuclear nonproliferation, the second assumption now seems deeply flawed.   

Even if American-specific constraints are placed on the deal during Congressional review this month in Washington, other countries are now free to provide nuclear fuel to India. 

From The Times of India

But if the US intends to redraw its own lines on agreements, India feels it will only be the US that will be the loser. Moreover, India will balk at buying either fuel or reactors from US sources. It might affect the US which wants a “level playing field” for its companies. “They’re undermining their own playing field,” said sources. 

In any case, India’s best suppliers for fuel will be countries like Russia and France, both traditional sources, and not hampered by such constraints. French envoy to India, Jerome Bonnafont told journalists today that the “NSG exemption was wise and appropriate… It opens a new chapter in which France desires to be a key partner.”  

For some, a nuclear deal with India was unavoidable. A growing presence on the world stage with nuclear arms since 1999, it was only a matter of time before the globe’s major powers had to incorporate India’s nuclear status. 

But the details of the deal trouble some nonproliferation experts. India flouted international law and norms by denoting nuclear weapons in 1998. But India now stands to receive the benefits of a responsible world-power—with no real constraints its future nuclear weapons testing or development. 

From Dr. William Potter of the Center for Nonproliferation Studies

What is especially disheartening about the nuclear agreement — and bodes poorly for future nonproliferation efforts — is the extent to which economic considerations and power politics overrode those involving nuclear arms control — even among states typically regarded as international nonproliferation leaders. Australia, Brazil, Canada, Germany, South Africa, and Sweden were largely missing in action — or worse — during the prolonged struggle to impose consensus on the deeply divided 45-member Nuclear Suppliers Group.

Did these states, and others, simply forget the commitments they undertook at prior Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) review conferences to foreswear nuclear cooperation with states lacking comprehensive safeguards? What credibility will they have now to hold the feet of the nuclear weapons states to the fire on other NPT commitments such as nuclear disarmament, the creation of nuclear-weapon-free zones, and the provision of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes? Having rewarded India, a nuclear weapons possessor, with nuclear trade benefits previously reserved to states in compliance with the NPT, what incentives remain for other states to join the Treaty? How can one tighten controls on nuclear exports to NPT members of sensitive uranium enrichment and plutonium reprocessing technology having just created a giant loophole for such exports to a non-NPT state? Which countries retain the moral authority to speak credibly about other states’ nuclear disarmament and arms control shortcomings in light of the collective nonproliferation amnesia on display in Vienna this past week? Certainly, the tiny group of white knights no longer includes Canada, Germany, South Africa, and Sweden — nations who pride themselves as models of nonproliferation propriety.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged: , , , , | 1 Comment »

 
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