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Archive for November, 2007
Winter Holiday
Posted by K.E. White on November 22, 2007
Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a Comment »
New M15 Chief Jonathan Evans Warns of Child Terrorists
Posted by K.E. White on November 5, 2007
A disturbing trend is noted by today’s Guardian:
Children in the UK as young as 15 and 16 have been implicated in “terrorist-related” activity as extremists “methodically” target them to help their aims, the head of MI5 said today.
In his first public speech since becoming MI5′s director general in April this year, Jonathan Evans, an expert in Islamist extremism, said terrorists’ increasing use of children was a worrying development.
Mr Evans, who also warned that Russia’s “unreconstructed” attempts to spy on the UK were tying up resources, said: “As I speak, terrorists are methodically and intentionally targeting young people and children in this country. They are radicalising, indoctrinating and grooming young, vulnerable people to carry out acts of terrorism.”
The MI5 director general said the country’s rightful concern to protect children from exploitation needed to be extended to cover violent extremism.
Speaking more generally, he said the UK’s greatest security threat continued to be al-Qaida, which was conducting a “deliberate campaign against the United Kingdom” and there was “no sign of it reducing”.
“I not think that this problem has yet reached its peak,” he added. Speaking to newspaper editors at a hotel in Manchester, Mr Evans said that when his predecessor, Dame Eliza Manningham-Buller, made a similar speech this time last year she said MI5 had identified 1,600 supporters of terrorism who were a “direct threat to national security and public safety”.
BBC News also reports on Evans’ speech, adding this:
BBC security correspondent Frank Gardner said the speech contained the message that MI5 needed the public’s help.
“It’s about tackling the ideology at grass roots. They can only really tackle the symptoms. They can’t go up to people and say, ‘Do you follow al-Qaeda?’”
Shiraz Maher, a former member of radical Muslim group Hizb ut-Tahrir, said the recruitment of young people by militant groups was a reality.
Youth initiatives, including football training and anti-drugs schemes, were being used to groom “impressionable and idealistic” young people, he told BBC Radio 4′s The World at One programme.
Posted in Britain, Great Britain, Jonathan Evans, M15, Terrorism | Tagged: Britain, Jonathan Evans, M15, Terrorism | Leave a Comment »
Pakistan Update
Posted by K.E. White on November 5, 2007
The Guardian offers great coverage on Pakistan political turmoil sparked by President Musharraf’s emergency powers declaration.
Apparently the clamp down on political opposition is continuing at full force. Guardian reports that tear gas at protesters, while hundreds have been arrested.
The Guardian also offers video of Musharraf’s emergency announcement yesterday and photos of the ensuing turmoil.
Posted in Musharraf, Pakistan | Tagged: Musharraf, Pakistan | Leave a Comment »
Musharraf Fights for Control of Pakistan: Musharraf Declares Emergency Proclamation
Posted by K.E. White on November 3, 2007
Musharraf declares a state of emergency in Pakistan, taking full control of the Pakastani government. The Supreme Court meets for an official response while Benazir Bhutto flies back from Dubai. The public response? Not yet known.
President Pervez Musharraf has suspended the Pakistani constitution, issuing a “Proclamation of Emergency” (read full text here). The move essentially puts Musharraf in charge of Pakistan, freezing Pakistan’s constitution until the order is rescinded.
In the interim a Provisional Constitutional Order will dictate government operations—most likely vesting Musharraf with sole executive control of the Muslim nation.
Pakistan has witnessed numerous terrorist attacks in recent weeks, a fact Musharraf’s proclamation reiterates often. The proclamation also notes an “overstepping” judiciary that works at “cross purposes with the executive and legislature”.
Dawn points out that the Supreme Court, who has had past success limiting Musharraf stranglehold on power, has called the move “illegal and unconstitutional.” But meetings are still ongoing in regards to an official response.
The Pakistani public will undoubtedly disapprove of Musharraf’s move, but whether or not that discontent will spur the proclamation’s reversal has yet to been seen.
But in light of recent arrests and Musharraf’s shutdown on communications and cable news in the capital, it seems Musharraf is more than willing to silence dissent. Given the choice between allegiance to Musharraf or jail, only time will tell if opposition forces can successfully unite against this imposition of emergency powers.
Benazir Bhutto, former Pakistani Prime Minister and current candidate in what were to be recent elections, was in Dubai when Musharraf issued the emergency proclamation. She is currently flying back, to cheers or to handcuffs has yet to be seen.
Reuters notes Asif Ali Zardari’s—Bhutto’s husband—response to the imposition of emergency rule in Pakistan:
“(She’s flying back) tonight, yes of course,” Bhutto’s husband Asif Ali Zardari told Reuters by telephone from Dubai, saying she was already on the plane.
“It’s definitely not pleasant news, it’s not welcome news,” he added. “We’re hoping to build institutions, not destroy them.”
It seems American pressure against such a development in Pakistan failed to deter Musharraf. Here’s the State Department reaction to the Musharraf’s emergency proclamation:
The United States is deeply disturbed by reports that Pakistani President Musharraf has taken extra-constitutional actions and has imposed a state of emergency. A state of emergency would be a sharp setback for Pakistani democracy and takes Pakistan off the path toward civilian rule. President Musharraf has stated repeatedly that he will step down as Chief of Army Staff before re-taking the presidential oath of office and has promised to hold elections by January 15th. We expect him to uphold these commitments and urge him to do so immediately.
The United States stand with the people of Pakistan in supporting a democratic process and in countering violent extremism. We urge all parties to work together to complete the transition to democracy and civilian rule without violence or delay.
Posted in Bhutto, Musharraf, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf, proclamation of emergency, Provisional Constitutional Order, Supreme Court | Tagged: Bhutto, emergency powers, Musharraf, Pakistan, Supreme Court | Leave a Comment »
Pakistan Update: Bhutto Successfully Returns to Karachi
Posted by K.E. White on November 3, 2007
Benazir Bhutto has returned to Pakistan, successfully voicing her dismay over Musharraf’s proclamation of emergency powers:
”Unless General Musharraf reverses the course, it will be very difficult to have fair elections,” she told Sky News television by telephone, after President General Pervez Musharraf declared the emergency and suspended the constitution.
…
”I agree with him that we are facing a political crisis, but believe the problem is dictatorship, I don’t believe the solution is dictatorship. We had dictatorship, the situation has got worse,” she said.
”My fear is that the forces of extremism want a two-year period in which they can expand their influence, drive NATO out of Afghanistan, and control Pakistan‘s destiny,” she said. ”If they get this two-year period, the whole world will be facing a very dangerous situation.”
Bhutto will be welcomed home not only by supporters, but by military personnel guarding her Karachi home. From The Age:
Witnesses said 100 police and paramilitary troops were deployed at her home in Karachi, apparently as a protective cordon. A bomb disposal squad was also at the scene.
Posted in Benazir Bhutto, Bhutto, Musharraf, Pakistan | Tagged: Benazir Bhutto, Bhutto, Musharraf, Pakistan | Leave a Comment »
Measure to Take Nukes Off High Alert Passes UN Committee 124-3
Posted by K.E. White on November 2, 2007
A symbolic measure to take nuclear weapons off high alert overwhelming passed a United Nations committee on disarmament. The measure must now be voted by the UN General Assembly.
The United States, France and Great Britain were the only nations that voted against the resolution—but 34 nations opted to abstain.
While adopting the resolution would mitigate concerns over accidental nuclear launches, these changes could diminish the deterrence value of a nation’s nuclear weapons.
From the Associated Press:
The resolution, co-sponsored by Chile, New Zealand, Nigeria, Sweden and Switzerland, now goes to the 192-nation General Assembly for a final vote. Assembly resolutions are not legally binding but reflect opinions of world governments.
The resolution calls for taking steps “to decrease the operational readiness of nuclear weapons systems, with a view to ensuring that all nuclear weapons are removed from high alert status.”
If nations with nuclear weapons choose to follow the recommendations, launching nuclear weapons would go from taking minutes to days. [Source: New Zealand's Disarmament and Arms Control Minister Phil Goff as cited in The Age]
The Associated Press brings attention to Britain’s rationale in voting against the measure:
John Duncan, Britain’s ambassador for multilateral arms control and disarmament, said “we voted against it because we don’t think that de-alerting is the primary issue that we need to address if we are to head to a nuclear-free world.”
“We think the emphasis should be on other things, the numbers of nuclear weapons, not the operational readiness, and also the concerns of proliferation,” he said.
Posted in deterrence, John Duncan, Nuclear, United Nations | Tagged: deterrence, high alert, John Duncan, Nuclear, Phil Goff, United Nations | Leave a Comment »
Gulf Nations Offer Iran A Sweetheart Deal, But US Options Remain Grim
Posted by K.E. White on November 1, 2007
Six Gulf nations—Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates—have proposed supplying Iran with uranium. This proposal, very similar to an earlier, rejected Russian offer, could end Western worries over Iran’s nuclear program.
But will Iran accept the deal?
Gulf states are willing to set up a body to provide enriched uranium to Iran, Saudi Arabia‘s foreign minister is reported to have said.
Prince Saud al-Faisal told the Middle East Economic Digest (MEED) the plan could defuse Tehran’s stand-off with the West over its nuclear programme.
The prince was quoted as saying that Iran was considering the Gulf states’ offer, but the US was not involved.
The BBC’s Paul Reynolds says it is doubtful the plan will go anywhere.
Such a deal would fall in line with other Gulf nations aspirations for nuclear energy. From AFP:
Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Libya and Yemen as well as the six GCC states have all said that they want to pursue peaceful nuclear projects.
Faisal told MEED he believed the new plant “should be in a neutral country — Switzerland, for instance.”
“Any plant in the Middle East that needs enriched uranium would get its quota. I don’t think other Arab states would refuse. In fact, since the decision of the GCC to enter into this industry, the other Arab countries have expressed a desire to be part of the proposal.”
Mil Arcega illustrates the policy conundrum American officials face in dealing with Iran, regardless of whether or not they agree with the White House’s current saber-rattling approach:
Some Republicans say the tough talk is necessary. But Republican Congressman Christopher Shays says economic sanctions against Iran’s military and its banking institutions need to be tempered by open dialogue. “It is time for us to start talking with Iran, diplomat to diplomat, politician to politician, and person to person.”
The White House says it has exhausted diplomatic efforts and last week imposed sweeping economic sanctions — targeting Iran’s banking institutions and the country’s elite military branch. The sanctions are meant to hamper Iran’s ability to conduct business internationally and reduce the influence of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, which U.S. officials accuse of providing weapons to Iraqi militants.
But Karim Sadjapour, a Middle East expert with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, says U.S. actions could backfire unless the U.S. can convince Iranians that abandoning its nuclear program will bring peace and stability to the region. “Increasingly, Iranians look next door and they say if the choice is between what we see in Iraq — democracy and carnage — and what we have now, which is authoritarianism and security, we will choose the latter.”
Posted in America, deal, Iran, Karim Sadjapour, Middle East Economic Digest, Nuclear, Prince Saud al-Faisal, United States | Tagged: America, Gulf states, Iran, Karim Sadjapour, Middle East Economic Digest, Nuclear, Nuclear Deal, Prince Saud al-Faisal, United States | 3 Comments »
Thursday Morning Tea
Posted by K.E. White on November 1, 2007
- Nuclear Headache: The National Academy of Sciences dumps on President Bush’s nuclear-waste reprocessing scheme.
- Joseph Cirincione talks on nuclear policy and his new book for NPR.
- Nukes of Hazard clarifies Putin’s military modernization plan, allaying concerns over a new weapons race—but not weapons delivery race. Confused? Read the blog.
- CNS discusses HR 1400, aka The Iran Counter-Proliferation Act. The bill aims to discourage international investment within Iran’s energy industry.
- DOJ’s Counterproliferation Task Force? UPI discusses efforts at the Department of Justice to stop the theft of US military technology.
Mirroring the FBI-led Joint Terrorism Task Forces around the country, the new counter-proliferation teams “will bring together the prosecutors, the investigating agencies, the export licensing agencies, and the intelligence community to coordinate their efforts against export theft on both the strategic and an operational level,” Wainstein said.
- The American Interest tackles American grand strategy. Key-word: restraint. But what about solving two thorny dilemmas: stabilizing Iraq and keeping Iran nuclear-weapons free.
Posted in Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Department of Justice, GNEP, HR 1400, Nukes of Hazard, Putin, Russia | Tagged: Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Department of Justice, GNEP, HR 1400, Nukes of Hazard, Putin, Russia | Leave a Comment »
News Update: Syria’s Suspected Nuclear Site
Posted by K.E. White on November 1, 2007
Summary: Fox News talks with David Albright on his satellite analysis of Syria’s suspect nuclear site. And Oxford Analytica speculates on motives for Israel to overreact towards Syria’s mysterious site. And the IAEA investigation won’t make clearing anything up soon.
Fox News talks with Albright, who suggests Israel’s attack was a rush-job:
“The Israelis stumbled upon this, were surprised and acted quickly,” Albright said. “And so we don’t know what evidence they collected or (if) they just panicked and decided to act without knowing and worried about the worse case.”
Analysis of those previous images, taken by DigitalGlobe, found that the structure could be a nuclear facility at least several years from completion similar to one in North Korea, according to an ISIS report released last week.
Oxford Analytica lists reasons for an Israel overreaction, and suggests this nuclear mystery won’t clear up anytime soon:
The publicly available information could have other reasons for wanting to suggest the site was nuclear:
–Israel is anxious to rebuild an appearance of strength after its perceived setback at the hands of Hizbollah in Lebanon last year.
–Israel may also have been interested in taking action that might cause Iranian leaders to reconsider their own nuclear ambitions.
–Attacking an alleged nuclear facility in Syria–a much easier target than Iran–might serve both purposes.
If the site was a nuclear reactor under construction, it has serious implications for security in the region and on the global stage.
And such uncertainty appears to be crippling the IAEA investigation into the site. From Reuters:
A U.N. watchdog inquiry into a suspected Syrian covert nuclear site bombed by Israel may end inconclusively without more information than satellite pictures that are already available, a diplomat said on Wednesday.
…
The IAEA has been studying before-and-after commercial aerial photos of the site and has asked Syria for explanations. But Syria has not replied and the pictures alone are unlikely to yield conclusions, the diplomat told Reuters.
“IAEA experts are looking back at the evolution of this facility. But with these pictures alone they feel they may be unable to draw conclusions,” the diplomat, familiar with IAEA affairs but not authorised to speak on the record, told Reuters.
Oxford Analytica points out that Syria is a fully compliment member of both the NPT and IAEA member of the NPT. And guess what? “[The suspected nuclear site] was still several years away from completion and was not required to be declared to the IAEA at its early stage of construction.”
Posted in IAEA, International Atomic Energy Agency, Israel, Nuclear, Syria | Tagged: IAEA, Israel, Israeli strike, nuclear site, Syria | 4 Comments »
