That’s the question Wired asks in an article published today. The article explores the actual significance of Russia’s recent ‘father of all bombs’ missile test. And it even offers reasons not to fret over the return of Russia’s Cold War era nuclear patrols.
John Pike, an analyst at Global Security, and Tom Burky, a Battelle research scientist, help assuage fears that this bomb signifies a newly resurgent Russian military prowess:
“It’s actually a niche weapon,” Burky says. “They have their place, in attacking caves. But there are only so many caves you’re going to attack. Not that we should ignore them.”
Indeed, the Father of All Bombs’ actual destructive force and military utility are perhaps less important than its apparent power.
“Some people claim Russia did this because they were upset about our (ballistic) missile-defense proposals for Poland and the Czech Republic,” Coyle says. “Other people say it has more to do with the upcoming presidential elections in Russia. Maybe (Russian President Vladimir) Putin is trying to preserve his legacy.”
And the article downplays concerns over the recent Russian decision to resume nuclear-armed air patrols:
Case in point, the much-hyped bomber patrols. In the past year, Russian long-range bomber types, including the Tu-160 featured in the video, have begun probing Western air defenses, in an echo of Cold War practices.
But according to Hudson Institute fellow Richard Weitz, the bombers themselves are old and poorly maintained — State Department spokesperson Sean McCormack referred to them being taken “out of mothballs.” Henry T. Nash, in his book Nuclear Weapons and International Behavior, describes deterrence as “being closely tied to the ‘politics of appearances.’”
So it doesn’t matter so much if a bomber is well-maintained, as long as it appears on U.S. radars. Nor does it matter if the Father of All Bombs is a fuel-air explosive or a thermobaric device, if it is really the most powerful non-nuclear bomb in the world, or even if it is a new weapon at all. All that matters is that it makes an impressive explosion for the cameras.
The Russian bear may be able to roar, but perhaps we shouldn’t fear its bite—yet.
