‘Yes, Prime Minister’ tackles the Cold War’s absurd nuclear logic. Have the times truly changed?
‘Yes, Prime Minister’ on the Cold War and M.A.D.
Posted by K.E. White on September 1, 2010
Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged: Nuclear Weapons, Yes, Prime Minister, MAD | Leave a Comment »
Mitt Romney Gets the New START Treaty Wrong
Posted by K.E. White on July 6, 2010
Mitt Romney excoriates the New START Treaty in today’s NYTimes. But in arguing that the treaty jeopardizes American security, he notes treaty technicalities without accessing their actual impact. In so doing, he gets the treaty wrong, needlessly politicizing U.S. foreign policy for partisan gain.
Romney’s chief charge? New START impedes U.S. missile defense:
Whatever the reason for the treaty’s failings, it must not be ratified: The security of the United States is at stake. The only responsible course is for the Senate to demand and scrutinize the full diplomatic record underlying the treaty. Then it must insist that any linkage between the treaty and our missile defense system be eliminated. In a world where nuclear weapons are proliferating, America’s missile defense shield must not be compromised. As currently drafted, New START is a non-starter.
On this score Romney is technically correct, but misses the larger point.
Yes, there are limits on America’s missile shield development. The Heritage Foundation and others point out the indirect limitation of U.S. missile defense within treaty. From Baker Spring’s webmemo at Heritage:
This specific collection of restrictions pertains to test target missiles and their associated launchers and comes in addition to a general restriction imposed by language in New START’s preamble and a specific restriction in Article V that prohibits the conversion of intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) launchers into missile defense launchers.
…
As non-deployed launchers, these test target launchers are counted against the 800-unit limit on deployed and non-deployed launchers in Article II of the treaty. Similar to the missiles themselves, Article IV of New START restricts what kinds of facilities may host non-deployed launchers, where they may be located geographically, and transit time. Like non-deployed ICBMs and SLBMs, application of elimination or conversion procedures (leaving aside those addressed in Article V) and notification requirements could apply.
So yes, there are limitations. But Steven Pifer at Brookings notes the mootness of this restriction (along with the NYTimes’s Peter Baker):
As for hard limits, the treaty contains only one regarding missile defense: the United States would be barred from placing missile defense interceptors in ICBM silos or SLBM launchers. That’s a constraint, but not one that will affect the U.S. missile defense program. The Pentagon has no plans to put missile interceptors in ICBM or SLBM launchers; it would be cheaper to build new silos for missile defense interceptors than convert existing ICBM silos.
And events on the ground suggest Brooking’s is right. Romney’s article omits continuing U.S. missile defense plans in Georgia.
Now are there flaws with the treaty? Unquestionably. But the treaty in no way sacrifices America’s development of missile defense. On top of that, the treaty offers tangible benefits to American security.
Posted in New START Treaty | Tagged: Baker Spring, Brookings Institute, Hertitage Foundation, missile defense, Mitt Romney, New START, New York Times, Peter Baker, Russia, Steven Pifer, United States | Leave a Comment »
Big Oil + Military Junta + N. Korea = Nuclear Burma?
Posted by K.E. White on July 5, 2010
First there are worries that North Korea has exported nuclear and missile technology to Burma, Iran and Syria.
And now there’s this report detailing a potential source for Burma’s alleged nuclear activities.
From the Korea Times:
Three oil companies, Total, Chevron and PTTEP, have provided Burma’s military junta with half of their revenue, worth nearly $5 billion earned from the Yadana Natural Gas Project, an environment watchdog claimed Monday.
If confirmed to be true, this suggests that part of the cash could have gone to North Korea which reportedly exported nuclear and weapons technology to Burma (Myanmar).
Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged: Nuclear, proliferation, North Korea, Burma, oil | Leave a Comment »
Dawn’s Iran Editorial Falls (Worrisomely) Flat
Posted by K.E. White on July 5, 2010
The Dawn, a leading Pakistani newspaper, offers a troublingly subtle critic of American policy towards Iran.
The Dawn comes out against the recent-round of U.S. sanction against Iran. Instead it asks the U.S. to accept its limited “moral basis”:
There is no doubt Tehran has pursued policies that often appear unnecessarily confrontational. But the US-led bloc has not helped matters by failing to realise the reasons behind Iran’s hard line. The truth is that, while the western powers follow Iran’s nuclear programme with a microscope, patronising Israel, the Middle East’s only nuclear power, continues to be the basic principle of their policy. This has robbed western diplomacy of a moral basis for going tough on Iran.
One question: Just how would Dawn propose America reclaim the moral high-ground? On that mark, the editorial falls (worrisomely) flat.
Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged: Iran, Nuclear, United States, Diplomacy, The Dawn | Leave a Comment »
NPT Recap: Deepti Choubey’s Report and Chat With U.S. Representative Susan Burk
Posted by K.E. White on July 4, 2010
The Carnegie Endowment offers a stellar assessment of the NPT Review Conference. First, Choubey offers a concise Q&A formatted report on what the conference achieved. Second, Choubey chats with U.S. Special Representative Susan Burk, headed of the U.S. delegation to the NPT.
One interesting note, Burk notes Iran’s isolation within the conference. Iran was the final party to agreed to the final declaration, holding up progress for hours. On this score, the U.S. showed itself more in sync with the international community than Iran.
Posted in NPT | Tagged: Carnegie Endowment, Deepti Choubey, NPT, Nuclear Weapons, Susan Burk | Leave a Comment »
NYTimes Sloppy Reporting on The NPT and Israel
Posted by K.E. White on July 4, 2010
Did the Obama administration snub Israel during a nonproliferation summit earlier this summer? The NYTimes wants you to think so, and—in so doing—offers a master-class in cherry picking facts.
The NYTimes reports on the costs of America negotiating a successful Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference earlier this summer. Its focus? The continuing strains plaguing the U.S.-Israel relationship.
The report portrays the United States as conceding to Arab demands “that the final (NPT) document urge Israel to sign the treaty.” The reward? President Obama ensured the quincennial conference would reach a final declaration, unlike its 2005 predecessor.
The article suggests this concession has further chilled relations between the United States and Israel. But in implicitly shaping this clause of the NPT document as a U.S. concession, the article makes three critical omissions.
First, the document “recalls the reaffirmation by the 2000 Review Conference of the importance of Israel’s accession to the Treaty,” not what I would describing as ‘urging’ Israel to join the treaty. (2010 Final Document)
But, more importantly, this reference to Israel is not novel. Indeed, similar language appears in the conference’s 2000 declaration. (2000 Final Document Article VII, Paragraph 3)
Admittedly, this request was not repeated in 2005. But the tumultuous 2005 conference ended without any final declaration.
So Obama’s ‘concession’ merely recognized the status-quo. Shouldn’t the NYTimes explore why 1) Israel expected such a shift and 2) the benefits-and-drawbacks of the status-quo?
But the NYTimes, latter on in the piece, suggests that it isn’t the reference itself, but rather the singling out of Israel—and not Iran’s nuclear program:
The United States, recognizing that the document would upset the Israelis, sought to distance itself even as it signed it.
In a statement released after the conference ended, the national security adviser, Gen. James L. Jones, said, “The United States deplores the decision to single out Israel in the Middle East section of the NPT document.” He said it was “equally deplorable” that the document did not single out Iran for its nuclear ambitions. Any conference on a nuclear-free Middle East, General Jones said, could only come after Israel and its neighbors had made peace.
The United States, American officials said, faced a hard choice: refusing to compromise with the Arab states on Israel would have sunk the entire review conference. Given the emphasis Mr. Obama has placed on nonproliferation, the United States could not accept such an outcome.
But the report omits another two critical facts: 1) Iran has not breached its obligations under the NPT (Iran claims to be pursuing a peaceful nuclear program) and 2) the final document doesn’t single out Israel—it also calls on India, Pakistan and North Korea to join the NPT. (Paragraphs 108, 109 and 115)
Now was it smart policy for Obama to permit the NPT declaration to mention Israel directly? I would argue it was his only choice: if the NPT failed to reach a final declaration in back-to-back meetings, the treaty system would face a legitimacy crisis.
Why does the NPT matter? It represents the legal basis for 189 countries—including Iran—not to proliferate nuclear weapons.
There are arguments for junking the NPT all-together, a subject the NYTimes article fails to mention. Instead, the NYTimes settles for swallow reporting and simplistic analysis.
Posted in NPT | Tagged: 2010 Conference, Israel, NPT, nuclear proliferation, Obama administration | Leave a Comment »
The Economist Slams the China-Pakistan Nuclear Deal
Posted by K.E. White on June 30, 2010
While dated, the Economist’s editorial on the China-Pakistan nuclear deal remains a must-read.
But I’ll ring one optimistic tone: with the US and China now both active nuclear patrons to non-NPT parties–not to mention others–there may be more support among the nuclear powers to tighten safeguards in the future.
Why? They’ll all want cover in the event of a nuclear crisis. This has particular resonance in Pakistan.
Perhaps the US offering their own deal is just the cross-cutting engagement that can secure Pakistan’s nuclear infrastructure?
To key parts from The Economist’s editorial:
America argued that India had a spotless non-proliferation record (it doesn’t) and that bringing it into the non-proliferation “mainstream” could only bolster global anti-proliferation efforts (it didn’t). The deal incensed not just China and Pakistan but many others, inside and outside the NSG. An immediate casualty was the effort to get all members of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), who have already promised not to seek the bomb, to sign up to an additional protocol on toughened safeguards. Many have, but on hearing of the America-India deal Brazil’s president is reputed to have flatly ruled that out. And where Brazil has put its foot down, others have also hesitated.
What particularly riles outsiders is that America did not get anything much out of India in return. It did not win backing for new anti-proliferation obligations, such as a legally binding test ban or for an end to the further production of fissile uranium or plutonium for bombs. India has since designated some of its reactors as civilian, and open to inspection, but others still churn out spent fuel richly laden with weapons-usable plutonium. India can potentially make even more of the stuff. Now that it can import uranium fuel for its civilian reactors, it can devote more of its scarce domestic supplies to bomb-making.
…
If Pakistan really is worried about India’s growing nuclear arsenal, diplomacy might work better than an arms race. George Perkovich of the Carnegie Endowment, a think tank, says Pakistan should lift its veto on a ban on the production of fissile materials for bombs. That would put India (which claims to support a ban) on the spot. Like enriched uranium, hypocrisy can be costlier than it seems.
Posted in Nuclear Deal | Tagged: China, deal, Economist, Nuclear, Pakistan | 1 Comment »
Blog-on-Blog: Kroenig Explores Why Do Countries Export Nuclear Weapons
Posted by K.E. White on June 30, 2010
PONI offers a crisp summary of a recent CATO featuring Matthew Kroenig’s new book Exporting the Bomb.
Read the summary, and track down a copy. But, for me, the value of this book comes in how it helps policy makers pressure nations to not spread their nuclear weapons?
On this score I’m not sure the book helps (but I’ll have to read it first): by looking retroactively behind, Kroenig may be imposing a pattern on what are really sui generis instances. For example, will this model derail once Iran gets the bomb and (may) begin freely exporting nuclear technology to other ‘have nots’? Furthermore, would one instance of a dirty bomb cause all nations to reassess the strategic gains of proliferation?
Hence, I am not sure Kroenig can get away from the problem that those who study the demand-side for nuclear weapons: 1) lots of variables and 2) thresholds/triggers that remain in persistent flux—reacting to crises. technological changes and the current state of geo-politics.
From PONI’s blog:
Professor Kroenig began by outlining a logic to supply-side nuclear proliferation. Rather than economic benefits, it is strategic calculus that Kroenig believes drives proliferation. Relatively powerful states often face greater negative consequences due to nuclear proliferation that weaker states due to a number of factors, including deterrence of military intervention, a weakening of military coercion, the risks of being pulled into regional nuclear crises, dissipation of states’ strategic attention and assets to cover one more security development, and threats to the cohesion of alliances. As it constrains more powerful actors, weaker states will often benefit from nuclear weapons proliferation.
From this, Kroenig derives three propositions for the conditions under which states chose to provide sensitive nuclear assistance to others. The less powerful a state is relative to the recipient, the more likely it is to provide assistance. Common enemies are another condition that can spark nuclear assistance between states. Third, the less dependent a state is on a superpower patron, the more likely it is to undertake illicit transfers, as it will not have to weigh the costs of losing security guarantees against the perceived benefits of proliferating.
Posted in Blog-on-Blog | Tagged: Nuclear, proliferation, PONI, Kroenig, export, Exporting the Bomb | 1 Comment »
Blog-On-Blog: What Jeremy Kahn Misses On the US-India Nuclear Deal
Posted by K.E. White on June 29, 2010
Jeremy Kahn, a former managing editor for TNR, offers a snappy piece (cautiously) defending the U.S. India nuclear. The article boiled down: don’t blame India for the regime falling apart; rather, blame the regime itself (and the Bush administration).
But his logic-chain derails a few times.
First, he concedes the Bush administration “gutted” the NPT regime.
While a critic of the deal myself, this claim strikes me as glaringly swallow—for either gleeful supporters or staunch defenders of the NPT to parrot. India (and Pakistan, Israel, North Korea) have to be brought into the nuclear system. And none of these countries will give up their weapons, or get a reform to the NPT that would gain them entry.
Ad hoc deals are the only solution.
But was an NSG exception the best way to go? Clearly not: logically, it demanded response a response from US rivals—a la the China-Pakistan nuclear deal.
But the biggest weakness remains its failure to promote non-proliferation within the terms of the US-India deal. The US could–and should–have negotiated more stringent nuclear disclosure and inspection requirements. By blatantly tying the N-deal to a sloppily thought out strategic aim (countering Chinese influence), the US caused more problems—and alienated key allies.
And India—at least in the near term—lost a chance to become a true leader on nonproliferation and disarmament.
The US-India nuclear deal did not, and has not, made the NPT irrelevant. And the US-India nuclear deal hasn’t made it easier for Iran to get the bomb.
Iran, like most countries, will get the bomb it if decides to do so. What the nuclear deal did was to lower the diplomatic pain it would feel.
But the real problem remains the P-5 members treating proliferation concerns secondary to other strategic interests. Hence the real flaw with the NPT.
Kahn is right to defend India from being lumped in with other proliferators. But, in doing so, he misses out on the costs of such an approach when it comes to nonproliferation.
In so doing, Kahn fails to imagine a world where India’s neighbors have nukes on hair-trigger alert. Then how has either India or global non-proliferation been strengthened?
So who is to blame? Nonproliferation remains a collective nuclear responsibility.
And, even with its flaws, the NPT has worked to prevent a nuclear attack for over 50 years.
Posted in Blog-on-Blog | Tagged: India, Jeremy Kahn, Nonproliferation, NPT, Nuclear Deal, US | Leave a Comment »
Success of Reset? Tame Response To Obamaland’s Changes to Missile Defense in Poland
Posted by K.E. White on July 4, 2010
Yesterday the United States and Poland signed an amended missile defense agreement. The agreement amends a previous Bush-era deal, an effect of the Obama adminstration’s ‘reset’ policy towards Russia.
The net-effect: plans for ground-based missile defenses in Poland are out; sea-based interceptors are in.
I’m surprised by the tame response to the news. Admittedly, the Russian spy arrests and the 4th of July have distracted American coverage. But even the National Review and Commentary are silent on the news.
Compare this to Kejda Gjermani’s 2009 Commentary editorial excoriating ‘reset’:
The Hill offers the best coverage on the amended agreement:
Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged: The Hill, Obama, Russia, Poland, Commentary, missile defense, reset | Leave a Comment »